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Payment volumes have drastically decreased over the weekend, and the XRP Ledger is displaying a dramatic decline in on-chain activity. This type of decline appears concerning at first. In actuality, it is not a structural red flag but rather one of the network's most predictable patterns.
XRP's weekend slump
Payment rails, cross-border flows and institutional usage are all closely linked to XRP Ledger activity, and they all significantly slow down on weekends. Payments volume regularly increases — often by multiples — when markets reopen and operational volume returns. In the past, charts showing post-weekend recoveries on the XRP Ledger may appear extreme.
Although a five-fold or even ten-fold increase in payment volume may seem dramatic, it is more of a normalization effect than explosive growth. The first active trading days of the week artificially inflate the recovery numbers when volume compresses to near-baseline levels during low-liquidity periods.
Because of this, unexpected surges in the volume of XRP payments should be interpreted carefully and contextually. Whether on-chain activity directly results in price action is the crucial question from a market standpoint. Sometimes, but not consistently, is the response. After a protracted decline, the price of XRP is currently trading in a technically sensitive zone as it tries to stabilize above short-term moving averages.
Although it does not always cause a rally, an increase in ledger activity can improve sentiment and support the story that the network is still operational and in use. Price structure is still more important. Higher-time-frame moving averages that continue to limit upside momentum are among the major resistance zones that XRP is still below.
XRP volumes plummet
Any upside response based solely on on-chain metrics is probably going to be limited or transient until those levels are restored with volume confirmation. Conversely, consistent or increasing payment activity throughout the week lowers downside risk by indicating that the underlying utility of the network has not deteriorated.
The lesson for investors is straightforward: a possible 10x increase in XRP Ledger payment volume is not unexpected, not a catalyst on its own and not something to exaggerate. After a period of low liquidity, it is a standard reset.
The ability of the price to create higher lows above important technical levels and whether activity remains high throughout the week are more important. In the event that both coincide, XRP may move from stabilization to a deeper recovery. If not, the surge will become insignificant on the ledger as just another typical Monday.
Arman Shirinyan
Yuri Molchan
Godfrey Benjamin
Gamza Khanzadaev