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The -88% XRP collapse scenario first raised by U.Today on Jan. 20 is no longer theoretical. After losing the crucial $1.88 Bollinger Band midline, XRP crashed 41% to a low of $1.121. The monthly chart structure has now entered confirmed breakdown territory, with historical parallels pointing toward $0.33 or even $0.20 as valid targets.
Unless bulls reclaim the $1.60 zone with volume, each failed monthly close reinforces the magnet effect toward the lower band. What was once dismissed as an absurd scenario is now unfolding step by step on the chart — with the next phase dependent on whether XRP will go for $1.
No more than 17 days ago, on Jan. 20, a shocking U.Today forecast warned that XRP could collapse to $0.20 if the $1.88 Bollinger Band midline were to fail. Two weeks later and $5 billion of liquidations after, that scenario is no longer hypothetical.
XRP has already lost over 41% since that alert, plunging to $1.121 in the last 24 hours before bouncing weakly. Worse — February’s candle opened and dropped directly below it without even a wick retest. In technical terms, this is a close confirmation of what many chartists dread: a full-band collapse setup.
Is it time to worry about XRP price?
The last time XRP closed the month below the Bollinger midline after a multimonth rally was in 2018. What followed was a two-year price suppression. The current downside magnet? The lower band, sitting near $0.336.
If February closes below $1.60 and fails to reclaim the midband with volume, the main expectation is a gradual bleed into the $1 zone. Out there, a breakdown below $0.99 will open the corridor toward the full -88% target for XRP, represented visually by the Bollinger Bands.
Those placing breakout bets since the November 2024 liftoff must now reevaluate. Every monthly candle closing below $1.918 strengthens the validity of the $0.20 magnet. As of now, the -88% collapse is not absurd, and the next checkpoints are clear too: a $1.60 retest or $1 breakdown.
Either way, XRP has lost its bullish protection level.
Gamza Khanzadaev
Arman Shirinyan
Yuri Molchan
Alex Dovbnya