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As global markets get ready for today's U.S. Federal Reserve policy update, XRP is gearing up for what could be one of its most significant moves this year. Given that the market has largely priced in the rate expectations, the focus is now on the tone that Fed Chair Jerome Powell sets — and crypto traders are taking note.
Most people think the Fed will keep interest rates the same, with CME FedWatch data showing a 99.1% chance of no change. That part is not in question. But what happens next could have a big impact on markets for months to come. It looks like Powell's going to have to deal with a lot of political pressure to start cutting, inflation risks linked to oil prices and new worries about tariffs.
The markets are still pricing in one to two rate cuts before the end of 2025, most likely starting in September. This view has been backed up by softer inflation numbers and a labor market that is holding up. But if Powell sounds cautious or gives a vague timeline, people's expectations might change quickly, which could be unfortunate for assets like crypto.
XRP has done well recently, even though there has been a lull in the market. On the daily chart, the price has been stuck just above the $2.10 mark, forming a tight range that often leads to a breakout. Failed breakdowns and quick recoveries have added to the view that the token is coiling for a larger move.
The thing that makes this Fed meeting particularly relevant for crypto is not the rate hold itself; it is the messaging around future easing. If Powell opens the door to September cuts, it could trigger a renewed appetite for risk assets just as the XRP price nears a key technical inflection point.
XRP is at a decision point, basically. If it breaks through to the upside, it could go up to $2.66, which would be a 24.88% gain from where it is now. But if it breaks down, it could go down to $1.61, which is a 24.41% drop. Anyway, the range is defined — and the stakes are clear.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team