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With both market structure and on-chain activity showing signs of contraction, XRP is currently in a somewhat advantageous position as it enteres a new trading week with a clean state.
Ledger's big milestone
XRP Ledger itself has seen the most significant change, with daily payment counts falling below the psychologically significant 1 million mark. Following a brief spike, payment volume has also drastically decreased, indicating a decrease in the network’s overall transactional intensity. This appears to be bearish at first glance. Reduced capital flow, weaker usage and decreasing demand are frequently the causes of lower network activity.
Context, however, matters. These declines indicate normalization rather than complete collapse because they come after a period of high spikes. Similar contractions have previously occurred after brief spikes in activity caused by significant transfers or institutional flows rather than steady organic usage.
XRP’s price is still clearly in a downward trend, with declining moving averages consistently rejecting it and lower highs. The asset recently tried to break out from a short-term ascending support trendline, but it was unable to maintain momentum and fell back toward the $1.30-$1.35 range. Currently, this region serves as a vital support zone. A breakdown below it would probably lead to the $1.20 area, which is consistent with previous lows in 2026.
It appears that volatility is being squeezed based on the compression of both price and network activity. Markets frequently become more susceptible to directional changes when participation declines and liquidity dries up. Because of this, even modest inflows may cause disproportionately strong upside reactions.
Not many sellers left?
Positioning is an additional factor. Following a protracted decline and a drop in on-chain metrics, the sentiment surrounding XRP is obviously weaker. This usually lessens aggressive long exposure, which lowers the possibility of downward cascading liquidations. Put simply, fewer weak hands remain to flush out.
This is not a confirmed bottom for investors until XRP reclaims important resistance levels, especially the cluster around the 50 and 100 EMAs, the trend is still negative. Nonetheless, there may be an asymmetry with the current arrangement. Upside potential rises if demand recovers, while downside risk is defined in the vicinity of recent lows.
Expect further consolidation in the near future with aggressive reactive actions. Although XRP is still weak, it is about to enter a stage where the circumstances for a reversal may start to take shape.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
Vladislav Sopov
