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TL;DR
- XRP tests the $1.19 line of defense: The price is pinned near the middle Bollinger Band ahead of Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC. A hold above $1.1934 would open the path to $1.35, while a breakdown threatens a drop toward $1.0419.
- SHIB faces a 45-day price test: The token is trading at $0.00000494 ahead of July, which has historically been a reversal month, with a median return of +8.92%.
- Ethereum prepares for the Glamsterdam hard fork: Closed tests of the layer-one (L1) upgrade have already started. The introduction of parallel execution and an increase in the gas limit will raise network speed by 4x, potentially setting a long-term target for ETH in the $2,500–$5,000 range.
- Smart money is holding Bitcoin: Major players have stopped selling, pushing exchange balances to their lowest level since 2020 at 2.56 million BTC, while ETF capital is rotating into ETH, SOL, XRP and HYPE.
Can XRP hold $1.19 before the historic debut of the new Fed chair?
Over the past few days, XRP has been steadily declining and has moved close to the critical $1.19 mark, where the middle Bollinger Band is located, as per TradingView, serving as the main dividing line between the medium-term bullish and bearish bias. Right now, the coin is trying to hold this key level while the entire financial market waits for the results of today's Federal Reserve meeting.
This event will mark the debut of the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, and his first comments on monetary policy will determine whether XRP can secure a rebound or continue falling toward lower levels.
A break below this middle line points to a bearish tilt in the medium term, so today's candle close will divide market sentiment into two scenarios:
- Bull Case: Buyers hold the $1.19–$1.20 zone and close the day above $1.1934. This would confirm a "bear trap" after a quick move below the middle line, return initiative to the bulls and open the way for XRP to move back toward the $1.35 range.
- Bear Case: The daily candle closes below the middle line, turning $1.1934 into resistance. In that case, the next targets would be either a continued sell-off, with the lower Bollinger Band at $1.0419 acting as a magnet, or a bearish retest of the broken middle line from below.
Because May inflation came in at 4.2%, the interest rate is almost certain to remain unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, so the consensus for the new chair is to deliver cautious comments to confirm a tight course on reducing the Fed's balance sheet and push rate-cut expectations into 2027, which traditionally limits growth in digital assets.
Why the next 45 days will define SHIB's price fate
Shiba Inu (SHIB) reaches the main crossroads of the summer, where historical seasonality and strong fundamental triggers are converging at the same point. The next 45 days, from today through the end of July, will determine whether the popular meme token can bounce from the bottom and launch a powerful bullish rally, or whether SHIB holders will face a new wave of decline.
The first half of 2026 pushed investors into a deep drawdown. The first quarter closed with a 13.9% loss, while the second quarter extended the decline by another 16.9%, with June currently down 10.4% after May's 11.5% drop.
As a result, Shiba Inu coin is trading around $0.00000494, which is 95% below its all-time high. The main argument in favor of a comeback is historical data from CryptoRank, as the turn between quarters has repeatedly produced some of the sharpest trend reversals:
- Four years ago, in 2021, the first major summer recovery from the spring sell-off brought investors a gain of +13.4%.
- Last summer, in 2025, historical seasonality repeated almost exactly, reaching the median figure of +8.92%.
- The current season, in 2026, has become a new convergence point, where the historical median benchmark of +8.92% is now aligned for the first time with a strong legal and technical foundation.
Thus, SHIB's historical median return in July stands at +8.92%, while the entire third quarter remains positive at +1.62%, promising at least market stabilization. On-chain data also confirms that during a local 16% price rebound in mid-June, large holders refused to sell their coins and moved 40 billion to 50 billion tokens to cold wallets.
How Ethereum's new hard fork brings Vitalik Buterin's final vision to life
Ethereum developers launched closed test networks for the major Glamsterdam upgrade, which may become the largest architectural change to the blockchain since the transition to Proof-of-Stake four years ago, scheduled to go live on the mainnet in the second half of 2026.
The update is designed to realize the latest vision of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Previously, the development vector was aimed exclusively at scaling through third-party Layer 2 networks. However, Buterin has adjusted his position, and due to the slow decentralization of L2 protocols, the focus has shifted toward modernizing the base layer, or Layer 1.
Glamsterdam combines two improvement tracks — Gloas at the consensus layer and Amsterdam at the execution layer — and introduces several important protocols:
- Enshrined proposer-builder separation (EIP-7732 / ePBS): The block-building mechanism is moved inside the Ethereum protocol itself. This removes dependence on external intermediaries, lowers transaction censorship risks and reduces the threat of MEV monopolies.
- Parallel execution (EIP-7928): Transactions will pre-declare the data they use, allowing nodes to process independent operations at the same time.
- Increased gas limit: Developers plan to raise the gas limit to 200 million units from the current 60 million, which should increase network throughput by 3–4 times.
- New fee model: Multidimensional gas accounting will be introduced, making computational operations and simple DeFi transfers on Layer 1 cheaper.
Industry analysts link the successful implementation of Glamsterdam to the long-term strengthening of ETH's position. Under base-case scenarios, after the fork is activated, ETH could consolidate in the $2,500–$3,300 range.
If the broader market enters an upward trend, experts allow for growth toward $5,000.
Crypto market outlook: Long-term holders defend Bitcoin levels before Warsh's FOMC speech
The crypto market remains in strategic waiting mode as large investors adjust to the changing macroeconomic landscape. Major players have temporarily frozen spot Bitcoin sales and are redirecting free liquidity into alternative digital assets ahead of important Federal Reserve decisions.
Key checkpoints:
- Smart money is holding Bitcoin: Large investors have stopped selling the first cryptocurrency ahead of the Fed's rate decision. The Coin Days Destroyed metric collapsed from 2.16 million to 33,000, confirming that "smart money" is not moving coins and is ready to wait out macroeconomic uncertainty.
- ETF flows are rotating toward risk: Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $9.6 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock with $17.3 million. This rotation comes against a modest $10 million inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, while more than $64 million is moving higher up the risk curve into SOL, XRP and HYPE funds.
- Long-term Bitcoin investors have stopped selling: The amount of cryptocurrency on exchanges has fallen to 2.56 million BTC, the lowest level since 2020.
- Next macro trigger: The regulator's final statement will set the trend ahead of Friday, June 19, when U.S. markets will close for the Juneteenth holiday.
U.Today Editorial Team
Dan Burgin
