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Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered warns that Bitcoin could test $50,000 before recovering, as ETF outflows and a weaker macroeconomic environment pressure prices. The bank reduced its 2026 Bitcoin price forecast from $150,000 to $100,000, citing deteriorating risk appetite and fading expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The information about the outlook was provided by Walter Bloomberg, citing the original client-only note of Standard Chartered.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $67,869 after hitting a 16-month low of $60,000 last week, marking a decline of more than 40% from its October peak. Ether changed hands at around $1,984 after reaching $1,751, a nine-month low.
Kendrick now sees Ethereum potentially sliding toward $1,400 before stabilizing. He characterizes the current phase as vulnerable to further downside if capital continues to exit digital asset investment products.
Why $50,000 is now in play
The central driver behind the revised outlook, as Kendrick frames it, is ETF-driven pressure. As economic data point to a softer growth environment and markets scale back expectations for Fed easing until at least June, nearly $8 billion have been withdrawn from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
In this context, Bitcoin’s correlation with broader risk assets has become apparent again. If redemptions persist, spot sales underlying ETF flows could push the asset toward the $50,000 level, which is viewed as a technical and psychological test zone.
Standard Chartered emphasizes that the current decline has been more orderly than previous crypto downturns, with less evidence of disorderly leverage cascades.
Bear Case
- Continued ETF outflows intensify.
- Fed rate cuts postponed further into the second half of 2026.
- Broader equity weakness affects digital assets.
- Bitcoin tests $50,000, Ether approaches $1,400.
Bull Case
- ETF flows stabilize and gradually return.
- Clearer Fed easing timeline restores allocation to risk assets.
- Long-term institutional adoption thesis remains intact.
- Bitcoin recovers toward $100,000 by the end of 2026.
All things considered, the bank’s downgrade reframes the path forward as conditional on macro stabilization and ETF demand recovery, rather than speculative expansion alone.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin