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SHIB tried to prolong the recovery after bouncing from a local support zone, but it immediately ran into the 100-day EMA, a wall it has failed to overcome several times this year. That level has essentially served as a price ceiling halting upward momentum, whenever SHIB begins to show signs of improvement.
Shiba Inu's local success
SHIB is currently trapped in a wider downtrend, but it is trading in a short-term recovery structure. Rather than sustained demand, short-covering and reactive buying drove the recent sharp increase. This is significant because price strength typically dies at major moving averages in the absence of follow-through volume, which is precisely what is occurring here.
Because it represents the middle ground between short-term speculation and long-term trend control, the 100 EMA presents particular challenges for SHIB. Every rejection at this level strengthens the seller's position of dominance. Any rally is technically risky until SHIB can close firmly above it and hold. That breakout just has not occurred thus far. The hesitation is confirmed by volume behavior.
Participation rapidly decreased as the price got closer to the EMA cluster despite a brief spike during the bounce. This indicates that buyers are not yet confident enough to withstand sell pressure at resistance. This indecision is also reflected in the RSI, which stays in a neutral zone rather than moving into strong bullish territory.
Staying cautious is key
This is not the time for investors to be overly optimistic. There are two types of structures. A clean break above the 100 EMA with follow-through volume by SHIB would significantly alter the setup. That could change the mood of the market and allow for a more extensive retreat toward higher resistance levels. Failure here, though, is probably going to result in another rejection and a return to lower support levels.
Participants in the market are being forced to decide between discipline and patience. It is dangerous to chase the price into resistance, but it is also foolish to overlook the chance of a breakout.
Resolution is what investors should be looking for right now. Whether this move is the beginning of something larger or just another dead-cat bounce will be determined by the 100 EMA. SHIB is technically capped until that level is broken and the bulls continue to bear the burden of proof.
Arman Shirinyan
Alex Dovbnya