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Legendary trader Peter Brandt has emerged as the main destroyer of market optimism, categorically stating that a reliable Bitcoin bottom pattern has "NOT NOT NOT" been formed. While the crowd is celebrating a local rebound, the veteran technical analyst offers a sobering view of the chart.
From his perspective, the current rise is not the beginning of a new bull rally, but only a technical move inside a local bearish corridor.
US inflation validates Peter Brandt's bearish Bitcoin setup
Brandt's sobering chart gets hard fundamental support from U.S. macro data. Fresh producer inflation figures show that PPI YoY jumped to 6% instead of the forecast 4.8%, while Core PPI YoY rose to 5.2%.
Moreover, the Bureau of Labor Statistics officially revised the previous April figures upward, from 4.0% to 4.3%, effectively admitting that the agency had understated inflation in the hope of de-escalation in the Middle East and stabilization in oil prices. The plan failed, the real numbers could no longer be hidden, and a new inflation wave began to accelerate.
Within this structure, Brandt identifies the formation of a potential bear channel starting from the February lows. The main markers of his assessment are as follows: Bitcoin, trading near $79,660 right now, is facing firm rejection from the upper boundary of this channel, ignoring inflation only because of a temporary liquidity inflow into a speculative window of opportunity.
Brandt's key mathematical reference point is a daily close by the ATR indicator, Average True Range, below $79,145. That would become a signal of buyer capitulation. In that case, Bitcoin would first pull back to the middle of the channel and then move toward its lower boundary.
While markets live on unfounded optimism, the high-risk sector is already showing the first signs of decline. Only two and a half weeks remain until June, when global oil reserves are projected to reach critical depletion levels. The fact that Bitcoin is already under such serious pressure only underlines Brandt's point: the market is on the verge of a prolonged decline, and there is still no bottom under its feet.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
