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Ethereum is at last regaining and maintaining above the 200-day EMA, something it has been unable to do for the majority of the previous eight months. Technically speaking, this is not a cosmetic detail. The 200 EMA has served as a boundary between long-term trends and dead-cat bounces for ETH.
Long-awaited breakthrough
Every rally that came close to this level since May 2025 either stalled or was forcefully sold. The price is acting differently this time. Ethereum is currently trading slightly above the 200 EMA in the neighborhood of $3,350 and, above all, showing acceptance rather than rejection. Rather than a sudden sell-off and a sharp wick, the price is compressing above the level.
This type of behavior typically indicates positioning rather than panic-buying. Although they are still there, sellers are no longer in complete control. It is supported by market structure. Since the December low, ETH has printed higher lows, and the most recent push through the 200 EMA is consistent with that slow change in trend.
The 50 and 100 EMAs are beginning to curl upward and flatten, which is slowing the downward trend. Volume has increased, but is not euphoric, which is important because controlled volume breakouts typically last longer than leverage-driven ones. This is where investors' expectations need to be adjusted.
Expecting vertical price expansion at this time is not a good idea. Consolidation above the 200 EMA, which enables it to move from resistance to support, is the more positive scenario. The likelihood of continuation rises significantly if Ethereum is able to maintain this zone during shallow pullbacks.
Invalidation potential
The breakout would be invalidated and ETH would probably return to the low $3,000s if there was a clear rejection back below the 200 EMA, particularly with high sell volume. Investors should pay special attention to that line.
The downside is structurally constrained as long as the price stays above it. Ethereum creates the possibility of a wider trend reversal if the level is maintained. In the past, ETH rallies that recover the 200 EMA typically move methodically rather than instantly toward earlier supply zones. As a result, the mid-$3,600 to $3,800 range will once again be relevant in the upcoming weeks.
Arman Shirinyan
Yuri Molchan
Godfrey Benjamin
Gamza Khanzadaev