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As the asset consolidates close to local lows XRP is currently going through one of the quietest periods in recent weeks with volatility sharply declining. On the other side of the market, Shiba Inu is also behaving in a similar way, while Dogecoin is trying to find a footing for a proper recovery.
Issues on the surface
A volatility squeeze which is a condition on the market, where price activity slows down and significant directional moves momentarily vanish has been created by price action compressing into a narrow range.
On the surface this may appear calm but these phases are rarely long-lasting and frequently precede a stronger breakout in one direction. The 26 EMA is the primary obstacle preventing a recovery for Shiba Inu and XRP as they currently are trading below important moving averages. Under that level every attempt to rise has stalled indicating that sellers continue to control momentum during brief rallies.
Additionally volume has decreased in comparison to earlier swings supporting the notion that the market is holding off on making a bigger move until it receives a catalyst. It's not always a bad thing when there is little volatility. Indeed it can be beneficial but only if it resolves through expansion.
Volatility must reappear in a way that forces the price firmly through the 26 EMA for XRP to rebound. The asset runs the risk of moving sideways or gradually declining in value as interest wanes without that expansion. Perhaps the perfect catalyst for XRP would be an increase in volatility.
Breaking above the 26 EMA would probably allow buyers to reclaim higher resistance zones if they move in with conviction. Under such circumstances the psychological $1.50 level turns into a feasible short-term objective.
A significant movement through that region would indicate that the long-term downward trend is finally coming to an end and that a possible recovery phase is approaching.
Bull market validation for Shiba Inu
Once again, Shiba Inu is demonstrating how hard it is for the asset to validate any significant bullish momentum. Although the price has made a few brief attempts at recovery, each increase has been devoid of one essential component: volume. In the absence of robust buyer participation, these rallies do not develop into long-term patterns, trapping SHIB within a more general bearish framework.
The way prices are currently acting makes that issue very evident. Every attempt to push higher is rejected close to dynamic resistance zones, and SHIB is still in a downtrend. The pattern of brief spikes and subsequent pullbacks indicates that sellers are still in control. More significantly, volume does not increase during attempts at recovery, which is a classic indication that there is a lack of market conviction.
Growing participation as the price rises is necessary for bullish structures, and that is just not evident at the moment. Rather than accumulation, the chart shows hesitation. Each rebound becomes little more than a relief bounce rather than the beginning of a new trend, because traders seem hesitant to make aggressive capital commitments.
This low level of participation essentially denies bullrun attempts before they start. Quickly, momentum wanes, and the price returns to its prior range.
This does not imply that a recovery is unattainable, but it does suggest that expectations should remain reasonable. It would take a distinct breakout supported by increasing volume, stronger candles, and consistent closes above significant resistance levels for a move to be considered truly bullish. As of yet, none of those signals are visible.
Won't be so easy for Dogecoin
The current state of Dogecoin's market demonstrates why taking a zero off of its price is still a challenging goal. Although investors find the prospect of DOGE returning to a higher valuation zone appealing, the technical reality depicted on the chart presents a far more challenging scenario. Despite sporadic short-term rallies, price action is still below several important moving averages, indicating that the overall trend is still bearish.
First, momentum is the problem. Every attempt at recovery has been thwarted by selling pressure before a genuine breakout can occur, trapping Dogecoin in a protracted decline. Buyers are not intervening with enough conviction to change the trend because the asset keeps failing to reclaim higher resistance levels. Inconsistent volume further indicates that market participation is insufficient to sustain a structural reversal.
It would take more than a straightforward bounce to remove a zero from DOGE's price. Strong inflows, persistent bullish pressure, and a clear breakout above the long-term resistance levels that currently serve as heavy barriers are all necessary.
The price is currently compressed close to local lows, creating a precarious environment where even minor selling waves could cause the asset to decline once more. Because of this, the upward path is far more difficult than optimistic narratives imply.
DOGE's recovery recipe
In order for Dogecoin to fully recover, it must first stabilize, which is a time of accumulation during which volatility declines and support levels become consistent. Second, buyers need to take back important moving averages and stay above them, which would indicate that sellers are gradually losing market dominance.
Last but not least, overall market sentiment is important; historically, DOGE has done better when risk appetite has returned to the cryptocurrency space as a whole.
Regretfully, it appears that the current setup is not explosive but rather weak. The chart shows low momentum and little upside follow-through, which is more indicative of weariness than excitement. The circumstances necessary for a strong move are just not apparent at this time, even though a recovery is always possible.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
