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On the daily chart, Bitcoin's price action has been following a pattern that looks like a classic wave, but it is unclear if the second wave — the crucial surge that could push BTC toward the elusive $140,000 threshold — will materialize. After an unsuccessful attempt to break through the descending trendline resistance that has been limiting momentum since June, Bitcoin is currently trading close to $109,000.
The chart displays the first wave of the Bitcoin rally, which began in mid-April when the price surpassed $95,000 and reached highs of about $112,000 in the same month. A foreseeable pullback followed this initial impulse wave, successfully retesting the 50-day moving average as dynamic support. A second strong upward leg, which would ideally place Bitcoin convincingly above $120,000 and pave the way for a parabolic move toward $140,000, is what traders have been anticipating ever since.
But the lack of action is starting to worry people. Even though the volume profile shows several daily closes above short-term moving averages, there has not been any discernible increase in buying pressure. Stated differently, it seems that the market is holding its breath in anticipation of a catalyst that has not yet shown interest. The psychological and technical threshold that many analysts consider to be a confirmation line for a fully developed bull market is $140,000, and it is not an arbitrary number.
We might be seeing a protracted consolidation instead of the spectacular rally that traders are hoping for if Bitcoin is unable to generate a sustained second wave. The absence of overbought conditions, which can be advantageous (room to run) but also reflect a lack of interest among major market players, is another indication of RSI readings close to 56. It appears that Bitcoin is in a state of uncertainty.
The market could either drift sideways, possibly down while sentiment cools, or the second wave could ignite soon and push the price above $120,000. For the time being, everyone's watching to see if the next impulse can end the impasse.
XRP flashes green
Finally, XRP is beginning to show signs of escaping the severe technical limitations that have held it back for months. A quick look at the daily chart reveals a clear story: the asset has decisively moved above all of its major moving averages, including the 50, 100 and 200-day EMA bands, which were previously acting as a tightening noose around price action.
An important change that points to the beginning of a more directed trend rather than the erratic, uncertain trading that characterized the second quarter of 2025 is this breakout from the compression zone. Notably, there is a definite bullish undertone indicated by the ascending triangle formation that has developed over the last few weeks.
At higher lows, buyers have been steadily stepping in and progressively consuming the supply. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), meanwhile, has increased to about 57, which is still far below the overbought level. This provides XRP with some leeway for gains in the near future.
Even though XRP is no longer trapped between moving averages as it gets closer to psychologically significant levels that have historically occurred, it will almost certainly experience significant selling pressure.
The $2.50 region is the most prominent of these as it has historically prompted significant profit-taking. Volume will also be important. XRP has not yet shown a genuinely compelling spike in participation that would validate breakout conviction, despite recent sessions showing moderate but increasing buying activity. There is a better chance of a clean continuation if volume keeps rising as the price gets closer to $2.50. The rally could turn into another false start, though, if volume stalls as traders would swiftly lock in gains.
Solana's positioning
As the asset does not produce any significant breakout momentum, Solana's position becomes more and more vulnerable. SOL is consistently grinding sideways below all of the major moving averages on the daily chart, including the 50-day, 100-day and particularly the 200-day EMA, which has served as a recalcitrant overhead resistance. Although there have been several attempts to recover higher levels, buyers have continuously failed to get past these technical obstacles.
For the bulls, this setup is not very encouraging. An asset that is persistently pinned below long-term moving averages is frequently a sign of traders' lack of conviction. Every rally in Solana's case is accompanied by fresh selling pressure, as evidenced by the string of lower highs that go back several weeks. This issue is further supported by volume trends. There has been no discernible spike in interest that would typically precede a long-term reversal, and trading activity has decreased from its peaks earlier this year.
Simultaneously, the RSI is circling the neutral 50 region, which suggests neither oversold circumstances nor any underlying strength. Solana runs the risk of entering a more severe correction if it is unable to make a clear break above the $160 zone, which is characterized by both horizontal resistance and the confluence of moving averages.
The first warning sign of a possible retest of the psychologically important $100 level would be the loss of the $140-$145 support area. It would represent a significant decline from the highs of this year and could further depress traders, who are already worn down by months of poor performance.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
