After a massive V-shaped recovery from its flash crash to $60,000, one of the world's largest asset managers has indicated that the bottom might be in.
Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, has publicly identified the mid-$60k range as a critical buy zone.
The key price point
The broader market was fixated on macro headlines last week, but Timmer kept his eye on Bitcoin's technicals. Despite the fear that gripped the market earlier today, he reaffirmed his conviction in the asset's price floor.
"The markets spoke loudly last week to the next Fed Chair being announced," Timmer wrote. "For Bitcoin, though, I continue to view $65k as an attractive entry point."
Gold will keep outperforming Bitcoin
Timmer also addressed the "elephant in the room", which is the fact that gold has recently outperformed its digital counterpart.
Gold has surged to new all-time highs due to central bank buying and geopolitical fear.
Timmer attributes this lag to technical positioning rather than a fundamental failure of Bitcoin.
"Given the distance between gold and Bitcoin vis-à-vis their support levels," Timmer explained, "I suspect that gold will continue to outpace Bitcoin until the flows converge further."
Timmer shared what he described as a "somewhat cosmic-looking chart" tracking commodities and bonds since the cyclical bull market began in October 2022.
The data highlights a stark reality for traditional 60/40 portfolios: long-term bonds are failing to protect investors, while "hard assets" are soaring.
"In my view, commodities (including precious metals) continue to serve as important diversifiers in this era of fiscal dominance, regardless of who finances the debt and how," Timmer stated.
He noted that precious metals have "quickly... risen in the ranks despite their very low correlation" to the S&P 500, effectively taking market share from Bitcoin in recent months. In contrast, long bonds remain "dead last," warning that if bonds become positively correlated with stocks again, investors will desperately need "uncorrelated assets (including alts) to navigate risks."
18 years vs. 5 millennia
In a chart comparing the inflation-adjusted market capitalizations of monetary assets, he noted that gold currently sits at roughly $35 trillion, while Silver and Bitcoin are tied at approximately $1.8 trillion.
The speed at which Bitcoin reached that milestone, however, is unprecedented in human history.
"It’s amazing to me that it took Bitcoin 18 years to reach a market cap of $1.8 trillion; it took silver five millennia," Timmer observed. "Apples to oranges of course, but still."
Alex Dovbnya
Dan Burgin
Tomiwabold Olajide