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XRP is in a really delicate position technically, and the monthly chart just gave its first serious macro warning since the 2024 breakout.
If the current $1.89 midline on the Bollinger Bands flips into resistance, the downside magnet is not a mild dip but a brutal collapse: $0.20, the next logical level in the volatility corridor. That is an 88% drop from the current price point, as visible on the TradingView chart.
The structure is as straightforward as it is brutal. The monthly candles are showing XRP having a hard time holding the middle band. This is the first time since its Q4,2024, liftoff, where there was an over 300% rally after years of it being stuck sideways.
Now that same band has flattened, and the candle bodies are closing into it like dead weight. The lower band has not been tested since 2022, and it has been widening since the parabola began.
All or nothing for XRP
Losing the midband here is not just a dip — it makes every breakout bet made since November 2024 invalid. When this band broke up in 2020, the price of XRP went into a two-year bear flat. The difference now is scale: the lower band sits at $0.20, not $0.60.
This setup does not guarantee that $0.20 will be the outcome, but it does lock it into the chart's language as a real possibility. Even if buyers step in early, that just shows they are not as strong as the market might suggest.
XRP technically still has 11 days to close above the midband. But every candle below it makes the signal stronger.
By the way, the last time this formation did not work was back in 2018.
Godfrey Benjamin
Alex Dovbnya
Tomiwabold Olajide
Denys Serhiichuk
Gamza Khanzadaev