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TL;DR
- XRP supply shock: U.S. spot ETFs have removed a record 1.23% ($1.08 billion) of XRP from circulation, creating a structural supply deficit as tokens move to cold storage.
- BTC liquidity trap: Following an $8.47 billion options expiry, Bitcoin lacks market-maker hedging support. The price sits near $78,000, showing "deceptive fragility" below the $80,000 wall.
- SHIB whale alert: A dormant wallet holding 1.66 trillion SHIB has awakened, transferring an initial 20 billion tokens to Coinone, signaling a potential long-term exit strategy.
- Crypto market outlook: Eyes are on BlackRock (IBIT) inflows and geopolitical peace talks; success could propel BTC toward $82,000, while failure risks a $76,500 retest.
"Vacuum effect": XRP ETFs remove a record 1.23% of supply from circulation
While crypto community attention remains fixed on Bitcoin price action, a key fundamental shift has occurred in the XRP market. By the end of April 2026, U.S. spot ETFs had accumulated a record 1.23% of the total XRP supply, equivalent to $1.08 billion in value, according to SoSoValue.
Over the past 24 hours, net inflows into funds reached $3.89 million. The main driver was the Franklin Templeton fund (XRPZ), which absorbed the entirety of this figure.
The current dynamic stands out because April fully offset March's negative trend. Tokens are moving off exchanges into custodial storage for long-term holding, creating a hidden supply deficit. In less than a month, more than $71 million in fresh capital has been "parked" in XRP ETFs.
In this context, the current price around $1.43 reflects a balance between institutional accumulation and retail caution. However, beneath the surface, structural compression is forming. With current absorption rates maintained, about 787 million XRP already under fund management, any positive development, for example around the CLARITY Act, could meet low available supply.
Bitcoin loses stability after $8.5 billion expiration
The crypto market has turned the page on one of the largest events of the month. On Deribit, options contracts worth $9.8 billion expired. Despite Bitcoin holding well above the Max Pain level, its price behavior has taken on signs of deceptive fragility.
At the moment of expiration at 08:00 UTC, the setup was clear. BTC traded around $77,900, nearly $6,000 above the $72,000 Max Pain point. This is a rare case where call option buyers not only dominated but exited expiration with significant profit.
However, this success created a liquidity trap. Immediately after obligations were cleared, the market showed classic inertia. A brief move of 0.53% pushed BTC to $78,000, followed almost instantly by a 0.66% pullback, showing a lack of fuel to hold above this psychological level.
The main risk now is not falling demand, but a change in market structure. Before expiration, market makers had to support positions through dynamic hedging. Once $8.47 billion in BTC options expired, that forced support disappeared.
Bitcoin is now in a "vacuum state", like XRP but a different one. It is free from options pressure but lacks the protective buffer of market makers. The risks are the same too - any large market order can now trigger a disproportionately sharp price move.
Shiba Inu coin whale begins unloading 1.66 trillion SHIB via Coinone
One of the largest private wallets, "0x9d9f823F", holding 1.66 trillion tokens, broke months of inactivity and began moving assets to an exchange. Arkham data confirms the whale has already sent an initial 20 billion SHIB to Coinone's hot wallet.
This address is a heavyweight within the SHIB ecosystem. Its total portfolio exceeds $10.25 million, with the majority allocated to Shiba Inu.
The 20 billion SHIB transfer is valued at about $120,000 to $150,000 at current prices.
Until now, the wallet had remained almost completely inactive for months, making it one of the largest dormant holders. Even after this transaction, the whale still holds more than 1.66 trillion SHIB, representing a significant share of circulating supply.
These actions come amid a difficult market environment for SHIB in April 2026. The token trades around $0.000006, showing only marginal growth of 0.41% over the past 24 hours.
The appearance of such a large potential seller on Coinone may intensify bearish sentiment. Yes, the transfer of 20 billion tokens represents only 1.2% of the wallet's holdings, but the fact that funds started moving after a long pause often signals a change in strategy.
If these test sales continue, they could create excess supply on Coinone, which the market would need to absorb amid relatively low trading volume of $76.67 million.
Crypto market outlook: Can BTC break the $80,000 wall this weekend?
BTC ends the week up 5.85% from Monday's open. The current impulse is driven by returning institutional demand, led by BlackRock IBIT, and the completion of a whale distribution phase. Despite the proximity of the $80,000 psychological level, ETF inflows and exchange liquidity scarcity outweigh geopolitical uncertainty.
Key checkpoints:
- Bitcoin holds in the $78,500 to $79,100 range. Volatility is expected to increase toward Friday evening due to options expiration effects.
- IBIT by BlackRock recorded strong inflows, reaching $3 billion year to date. Aggregate flows across all spot ETFs have moved from multi-month outflows into a sustained inflow phase.
- Santiment reports that wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated 40,967 BTC, worth $3.2 billion, over the past 14 days.
- The second round of peace negotiations begins this weekend. Progress could remove risk premium and push BTC toward $80,000 to $82,000. Failure would likely return the price to test $76,500 support.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
