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Below the surface, the XRP Ledger is displaying another concerning indication. The network's daily payment volume has decreased to just 312.8 million XRP, and only about 438,000 transactions have been processed overall. The sharp contraction indicates a persistent decline in one of the most significant indicators of actual network usage, even though neither figure represents an all-time low.
Activity on the Ledger
Since payment activity reflects real account transfers rather than speculative trading, it has historically been a crucial indicator of the health of the XRP Ledger. Payment volume exceeded 1 billion XRP earlier this month, indicating increased network activity. Now that this momentum has vanished, activity has dropped by over 70% from recent highs.
The market structure of XRP makes the decline even more worrisome. XRP is still stuck below all of the major moving averages on the price chart. The 26-day EMA, near $1.11, serves as immediate resistance for the asset, which is currently trading at about $1.10. The 50-day EMA is located at about $1.14 above that, and the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are still much higher at about $1.25 and $1.46, respectively.
This positioning suggests that XRP is still in the midst of a well-established downward trend. The market hasn't yet produced a convincing bullish reversal pattern, and every attempt at recovery over the past few months has failed before reaching higher resistance zones. Volume dynamics also don't help. In contrast to the periods that previously drove significant XRP rallies, trading activity is still comparatively muted.
Although buyers have found it difficult to sustain momentum as the price gets closer to the short-term moving average cluster, the most recent recovery from the June lows created some optimism. The RSI is now close to 49, indicating that selling pressure has lessened after recovering from oversold territory. Nonetheless, the indicator does not yet signal a significant trend reversal and is still below bullish territory.
XRP bulls aren't ready
Reclaiming the 50-day EMA and moving toward the $1.25 resistance zone is the obvious immediate task for XRP bulls. The XRP Ledger risks appearing more and more detached from the kind of adoption narrative that investors have been depending on for years in the absence of increased network activity and a significant recovery in payment flows.
For the time being, XRP has little fundamental support as it tries to stabilize above the psychologically significant $1 level, because declining payment volume and weakening transactional activity indicate that the ledger's core usage is still under pressure.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
