Mike McGlone, chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has opined that Bitcoin might be the leading indicator of the next recession.
He argues that some asset-price signals (gold at record highs, falling Treasury yields, rebounding equity volatility) look like early warning signs historically associated with major economic reset events.
Bitcoin is a high-beta risk asset whose price reacts quickly to changes in global risk sentiment. If the flagship cryptocurrency starts to fall sharply, it may be an early market signal that leverage is unwinding.
$10,000 price target
McGlone has maintained a consistently bearish outlook on Bitcoin throughout the past two months. He argues that Bitcoin's sharp decline from its 2025 peaks indicates the onset of post-inflation deflationary pressures.
This is a similar pattern to the one that was observed in 2007 when the Federal Reserve began easing rates, only for markets to eventually crater.
McGlone frequently points to Bitcoin's tendency toward mean reversion. He has predicted that the cryptocurrency could revisit the $50,000 level, potentially plunging even lower toward $10,000 in a more severe scenario.
He has been consistently bullish on gold. The yellow metal has managed to shine in 2025 while Bitcoin, crude oil, and other risk assets have faltered.
Late-stage bull market
McGlone contends that the crypto's maturation and ETF inflows mark a late-stage bull market peak akin to dot-com excesses. He believes that the S&P 500 could record its third down year since 2008. The analyst has predicted possible trajectories toward 5,000 for the index alongside $50,000 Bitcoin in 2026.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team