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Bitcoin's current pullback toward the $76,275 level has significantly cooled the market, but technically the bullish scenario for 2026 still remains intact. While macroeconomic factors, particularly the declining probability of a Fed rate cut, continue to pressure spot price action, the weekly Bollinger Bands chart still points to preserved key support, leaving the path toward the upper boundary of the range at $91,091 per BTC open.
Despite the local decline, Bitcoin on the weekly TradingView chart continues to trade above the Bollinger Bands middle line (20 SMA), which is currently positioned at $74,986. Holding this line remains the main condition for preserving the medium-term uptrend.
If the current test proves successful and price stabilizes above it, the upper Bollinger Band at $91,091 will regain its status as the market's primary price target.
7.8 million BTC supply wall blocking a rally to $90,000
An interesting and less obvious angle on the current situation comes from data provided by Glassnode. The main challenge for buyers right now lies not in the charts, but in investor psychology.
7.8 million BTC underwater: at the current price near $76.7K, that massive volume of supply is being held by both short-term and long-term holders sitting on unrealized losses.
This supply accumulated during the assault on previous cycle highs. Now it hangs over the market as a heavy supply overhang. At even the slightest attempts to rally toward $90,000, many of those holders will likely try to exit positions at breakeven, creating strong resistance.
The Bollinger Bands technical spring appears ready for a rebound toward $91,000 for Bitcoin, but for a structurally reliable uptrend, the market must first absorb the multimillion-dollar volume of coins trapped near the highs.
In some way, this absorption is already underway as Strategy acquired another 24,869 BTC over the past week, countering broader market panic fueled by rising US10YT yields and spiking global geopolitical tensions.
Dan Burgin
