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The prolonged four-month calm on the crypto market is likely coming to an end. At least that is what popular CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Maartunn warned investors about, pointing to an inevitable and abrupt breakout of Bitcoin from its current trading range.
According to his calculations, the amplitude of the move next week or immediately after that will amount to 10% to 20%.
The reason behind the coming big move, according to the analyst, is record volatility compression on the Bitcoin price chart. The main cryptocurrency has been locked inside a narrow range for more than 114 consecutive days since February 2026, while the volatility indicator is pressed to the floor and has updated a multi-month low near 0.90%.
Do not be surprised if Bitcoin moves 10–20% next week or the week after, Maartunn stated.
Liquidity drought meets record Bitcoin HODLing
The specificity of the moment at the end of May also lies in the phenomenon of "empty" order books. While trading volumes on major spot exchanges have fallen to local lows, long-term investors have locked their coins in non-custodial wallets. The supply of Bitcoin available for purchase on exchanges has been depleted.
Under such a severe liquidity deficit, the market does not need billion-dollar inflows for a strong price move, meaning any local impulse, whether the Fed Beige Book or an announcement of a purchase from Saylor, could instantly pull the trigger:
- Bullish scenario: If the price consolidates above the upper boundary of the channel at $78,200, stop orders from short sellers will be activated. This will instantly catapult Bitcoin into the $81,500–$88,000 area.
- Bearish scenario: If sellers push through local support near $72,000, a cascade of forced liquidations of overloaded margin longs will begin. This will trigger a rapid price drop toward the $65,000–$58,800 levels.
The direction of the first strong impulse will determine the long-term trend for the entire summer of 2026, so market participants should prepare for the end of the prolonged flat.
Dan Burgin
