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According to Alex Kruger, a cryptoanalyst-cum-economist, the current crypto market dynamics are nothing like those seen in the 2021 pre-bull run period. July 2021 marked a period of consolidation shortly after Bitcoin printed a death cross in late June.
Current crypto market dynamics are nothing alike June-July 2021
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) January 18, 2022
Jun-Jul 2021:
- Fed: ultra dovish
- Sentiment: panic
- Volatility: very high (iv 100-75)
- Funding: very negative
Jan 2022
- Fed: hawkish
- Sentiment: apathy
- Volatility: low (iv 60)
- Funding: flopping around 0
Bitcoin had marked bottom lows at $28,800 days after making the bearish crossover and subsequently entered into sideways trading. The lead asset consolidated for nearly a month before resuscitating a positive move in late July 2021. Bitcoin marked all-time highs of $69,000 on Nov. 10 consequently.
The analyst explained, ''Saying this as many are comparing now with Jun-Jul 2021. Technically, charts are very similar, but (macro) fundamentals changed, valuations are much larger, and there is not as many shorts to squeeze."
Kruger, however, maintains optimism regarding a break higher to $46K: ''I'm still looking for a break higher in $BTC to 46k. It makes sense IMO to either play short-term for the time being or reduce size to play the long game,'' he says.
Bitcoin miners' Outflow Volume reaches one-month high
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin Miners to Exchange Flow (7d MA) continue to set new highs. This metric just reached a one-month high of 6.639 BTC after setting a previous high of 6.509 BTC on Jan. 17.
? #Bitcoin $BTC Miners to Exchange Flow (7d MA) just reached a 1-month high of 6.639 BTC
— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) January 18, 2022
Previous 1-month high of 6.509 BTC was observed on 17 January 2022
View metric:https://t.co/WwBf5cbd33 pic.twitter.com/FHMInd98YH
Likewise, Miners' Outflow Volume (7d MA) has also risen to a one-month high of 71.859 BTC. The previous one-month high of 71.462 BTC was observed on Dec. 28, 2021, when Bitcoin fell from $50,720 to $47,300.
The increase in the number of coins available for liquidation on exchanges could indicate downside concerns for the leading crypto.
In the past, such spikes in miner outflows have signaled price decreases, but they do not always guarantee a drop is on the way. It will be interesting to observe whether the recent increase in miner outflows results in a significant price decline or traps bears on the wrong side of the market.
At press time, the cryptocurrency is trading near $41,634, a near 2% drop on the day. Prices are trapped in the range of $40,000 to $44,000 for the second week since Jan. 6.
Mushumir Butt
Gamza Khanzadaev
