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XRP is heading into the last week of June with losses mounting up, and unless something changes dramatically, the token is set to end Q2, 2025, with disappointing performance.
After dropping 0.80% in May and then falling even more, at -5.64% this month, it looks like the quarter will probably end up being negative, even though April's earlier 4.98% rise was encouraging. Momentum has gone, and the price is just drifting around — but if you look at the bigger picture, it's not as random as it seems.
Actually, XRP's long-term seasonality points to July as the star month in its whole trading history. Besides April, It's the only one where both the average and median monthly returns are clearly positive, with average gains of 7.90% and a median return of 6.91%. You can't achieve that kind of consistency over more than 10 years by accident. It suggests a kind of pattern that's built into how the market works, especially after some weaker spring performances.
Looking back, this setup isn't new. In 2024, XRP dropped about 25% in Q2, but then rallied almost 29% in Q3. In 2022, the drawdown was steeper — a brutal 59.4% crash in Q2 — but was followed by a sharp 44.5% recovery in Q3.
We also saw similar rebound patterns in 2020 and 2021. These aren't just one-off flips — they are part of a bigger trend that's pointing to a summer surge after a bit of a slow Q2.
Right now, XRP price is trading at around $2.03, which is good news as it's holding above the key long-term support levels and drifting inside a narrow volatility band. There's no major breakdown underway, but there's also no immediate catalyst pushing things forward. That said, the current calm might not last much longer.
If history is anything to go by, XRP's July is going to completely reverse the tone. And that window is just around the corner.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team