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TL;DR
- BTC bull target: Bitcoin holding $68,000 as historical 69% win rate in April suggests a rally toward $90,000 if the macro and political thaw holds.
- XRP bearish pivot: Another monthly close below the $1.99 Bollinger midline shifts priority to the $0.62 support floor.
- Dogecoin Whale Alert: 900 million DOGE worth $83 million moved off Bithumb, likely strategic accumulation ahead of the Qubic mainnet launch.
- Crypto Market Outlook: Traders eye the CLARITY Act Senate hearings and U.S. ISM data this week for definitive liquidity signals.
XRP closes Q1 below Bollinger Bands midline: Path to $0.62 opens
At the end of the past month, XRP failed to get above the Bollinger Bands midline, which is currently located at $1.99, according to the TradingView chart. The close of the latest monthly candle below this level confirms the long-term priority of a bearish trend.
The key support at the midline now acts as the main barrier for XRP. Any attempts at growth in the current month will most likely be limited to a test of the midline level at $1.99 from below.
At the same time, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart continues clearly at the level of $0.62 per XRP. The absence of strong horizontal support levels in the range between the current price of $1.35 per XRP and the lower boundary at $0.62 make the latter the main technical target.
In addition, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands downward indicates rising volatility, which makes the scenario of a gradual move toward the lower boundary magnet the most likely.
Thus, at the moment, the base scenario remains a move toward the lower boundary of the channel, while a positive outcome for XRP is possible only in the case of an abnormal return and consolidation above the midline, which is not currently confirmed by market dynamics.
“Disappearance” of 900 million DOGE from Bithumb
The beginning of the new month was also marked by abnormal activity on South Korean exchange Bithumb. Within one hour, as reported by Whale Alert, no less than 900 million Dogecoin were withdrawn from the exchange to unknown wallets — the equivalent of about $83 million.
At the moment, there is no confirmed data about a hack or loss of funds, so the movement of 900 million DOGE looks more like a planned technical operation, or the intention of an unknown whale to accumulate coins and later realize them if a late April rally as in 2025 occurs.
The price of DOGE remains in a stable range around $0.093. The broader picture shows that the asset is in a phase of prolonged consolidation above the key support level of $0.09.
Interestingly, today also marks the planned launch of the Qubic mainnet, which is building a system of useful mining for Dogecoin. It is possible that the large movement of coins preceded such integrations of the asset into a new protocol for distribution across pools.
Why April opens path to rally above $80,000 for Bitcoin
After the worst first quarter since 2018, Bitcoin is finally showing signs of recovery, closing March with a small gain of 1.83%. This interrupted a prolonged period of negative months and strengthened the foundation for a traditional new upward move.
The main driver was, of course, news not directly related to the crypto market but to the global macro situation. On late-March developments, Bitcoin surged to $69,000.
Historically, April has had a strong track record since 2013, according to CryptoRank. This month closes in the green in 69% of cases, with an average return of about 12.4%.
Therefore, in 2026, it can be expected that, if conditions align, Bitcoin may test levels above $75,000. In the most favorable scenario, if the flagship cryptocurrency shows average growth of around 30% or more, optimistic targets extend up to $90,000.
Bitcoin has successfully defended the key zone around $67,000. As long as the price remains above this level, the recovery scenario for the second quarter remains dominant.
However, to confirm a full trend, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $75,000. Despite positive historical patterns, macroeconomic risks and volatility linked to energy prices remain.
Crypto Market Outlook: Political thaw vs. technical resistance at $70,000 BTC
The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, enters April 2026 in a phase of fragile optimism after a prolonged decline. Bitcoin holds above $68,000, and its further trajectory will be determined not only by price action but also by a number of key events:
- On April 1, the ISM manufacturing index is scheduled for release. This is the first major business survey reflecting tariff impacts and is important for assessing inflation expectations.
- In addition, labor market reports will be published midweek, which may influence expectations around employment conditions in the United States and, indirectly, the future path of Federal Reserve policy.
- Finally, hearings in the U.S. Senate on the CLARITY Act are ongoing. The bill may define the regulatory status of digital assets and stablecoins, directly affecting crypto market liquidity.
The uniqueness of the current moment lies in the fact that it is now being decided whether Bitcoin will act as a safe-haven asset or, like the broader crypto market, will fully transform into a high-beta indicator of the global macro environment.
Therefore, in 2026, Bitcoin’s success directly depends on geopolitical stability, restoration of energy supply chains and regulatory clarity around the multibillion-dollar stablecoin market.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
Vladislav Sopov
