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Fidelity Investments' Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, has shared an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. The prominent analyst believes the flagship cryptocurrency is currently laying the groundwork for a massive upward trajectory.
Bitcoin has shown significant resilience in recent weeks. The digital asset successfully bounced from a local low of $60,033 and established a new recovery high of $78,344.
Base building or bear flag?
In a recent market update on X, Timmer acknowledged that the upward movement from the $60,033 floor could technically be classified as a "bear flag." This pattern often precedes further downside.
However, Timmer ultimately leans toward a much more bullish scenario. He stated Bitcoin continues to "build a large base here." He views this extended consolidation phase as necessary preparation for the "next major up wave."
A rocky first quarter
As of March 31, the S&P 500 was down 4.3% year-to-date. In the cohort of asset classes tracked by the Fidelity director, only Bitcoin and large-cap growth equities performed worse. Meanwhile, commodities and gold led the pack.
Despite the early underperformance, Timmer recognized the resilience of the flagship cryptocurrency. He described the massive drawdown from $126,000 to the $60,000 level as a "mild winter." During this period, Bitcoin consistently held onto the $65,000 to $70,000 range to form a base.
One of Timmer's most notable observations involves the direct capital rotation between Bitcoin and gold. He noted a distinct trend in Exchange Traded Product (ETP) flows. When Bitcoin reached its macro peak last October, capital actively exited Bitcoin ETPs and flooded into gold.
However, that dynamic has recently flipped. Gold lost its momentum, and Bitcoin established a solid support base. Because of this shift, capital flows have reversed back into digital assets.
"To me this is a good way to think about why gold has started acting like Bitcoin and bitcoin has started acting like gold," Timmer explained. This reversal ultimately set the stage for his current prediction of an impending major market wave.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
