The September performance of Bitcoin has defied its bearish historical trend. As the month continues, Bitcoin has risen +3.26%, making September 2025 one of the few green Septembers.
The fourth quarter, which has traditionally been the best time for Bitcoin, may be more broadly affected by this. With an average negative return over the past 10 years, September has been one of Bitcoin’s worst months when examining long-term historical data. When September ends on a positive note, however, the next 2-6 months typically see a lot of growth. For example, in 2020 and 2013, green Septembers were followed by rallies that lasted into year's end and extended into the next year.
In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin is currently consolidating after a volatile summer, trading between $112,000 and $115,000. According to the daily chart, Bitcoin is finding support above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trading at $106,000. This buffer shows that as long as Bitcoin stays above six figures, even in the event of brief declines, the overall trend will continue.
There is cautious optimism on the market. This month, there were spikes in liquidation, but Bitcoin has not fallen below crucial support levels. Because the RSI is neutral, volatility is allowed without being overtaken by an overbought or oversold situation. In addition, trading volume has stabilized at current levels following a summer of notable spikes.
This thesis is reinforced by the historical return matrix, which shows that October, November and December have continuously been some of Bitcoin’s best months, with an average of +21% in Q4. Traders are considering the possibility that history might repeat itself, as September is already going well and just one week remains.
In conclusion, if sustained, Bitcoin’s September return of +4.15% positions the market for a potentially bullish Q4. The data indicates that a green September could once again signal the start of a multi-month rally, even though there are still risks, particularly with regard to macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory developments.