CryptoLaw founder John Deaton discusses whether there will be a settlement in the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. He went on to mention two factors that could prompt settlement in the lawsuit. First is if the SEC turns over former official William Hinman's speech drafts, edits, emails and comments thereof. Second is another thing that could facilitate a settlement if the SEC receives a disfavorable decision in the LBRY case. One or both of these events happening could facilitate a settlement in the widely publicized Ripple case.
In 2021, the SEC filed a complaint against LBRY Inc., alleging that the company offered unregistered securities when it sold "LBRY Credits" to numerous investors. Possibly, the LBRY case could be decided before the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple Labs; thus, the court's findings in the LBRY case could be cited in the Ripple case. The SEC attempted to use a ruling in the LBRY case in the ongoing Ripple lawsuit.
At the heart of the Ripple case is a speech by former SEC official William Hinman from 2018, stating that ETH was not a security.
Ripple officials also think that the documents that the SEC wants to keep confidential will highlight disagreement among the agency's top officials about whether to label XRP a security, undermining the SEC's position.
Currently, Ripple awaits a decision by District Judge Torres on privilege issues over the former SEC official documents. If the SEC gets a unfavorable judgment from Judge Torres, defense lawyer James K. Filan predicts that there are chances that the SEC might try to file a motion for certification of an interlocutory appeal to the Second Circuit, which may stretch out the resolution of the Hinman email issue longer than expected.
Then Filan wrote, "The bottom line is I believe we are a long way from seeing the Hinman documents, although I cannot predict exactly when. I'm simply saying settle in because it’s going to take more time than you want."
Based on the decisions to be made and the motions to be briefed, the few months remaining in 2022 may be key in the lawsuit. Attorney Jeremy Hogan predicts that the most "likely settlement timeframe is from now until the end of November because the cards will be on the table."