The psychology of the market is a curious thing. A week ago, Bitcoin at $7,900 seemed like a heaven-sent miracle, and today this price for the main asset is making players if not panicked, then certainly discontented and irritated. It’s understandable: when you are expecting a sharp rebound, and instead get a prolonged flat, plans for quick enrichment must be adjusted. But the market is a living organism where something is always happening. It’s full of opportunity for those who are prepared to seek and wait.
Capital redistributed within the market
Capitalization of all cryptocurrencies is $325 billion, completely unchanged since yesterday. Bitcoin dominance, however, has fallen to 41.3 percent, which indicates an active redistribution of capital within the market.
For the first time in a long while, we are seeing a lack of unity in the top 10: half of the assets are red, half are green.
Bitcoin and Cardano are showing the worst results - their prices have decreased by about 2 percent. Stellar and Litecoin are in the lead today, with an increase of 10 percent and 3.5 percent respectively.
BTC / USD
The yellow line of resistance, which we applied to the markup yesterday, has confirmed its significance: after several unsuccessful attempts to break it, Bitcoin price went to test the nearest level of the Fibonacci retracement. The $7,800 mark is holding for now, but the lack of good purchase volumes and the formation of a bearish flag are hinting at a possible capitulation.
The formed “head and shoulders” figure, whose neck line has already been broken, also fits into the scenario of further decline for Bitcoin price. The dimensions of the figure indicate the target of $7,500, which coincides with a strong mirror level from April 3 and is located in the middle of the $7,400 - $7,600 range that we mentioned previously.
The activation of this figure is only one of the possible scenarios, and finding a foothold above $8,000 during the day will call into doubt a deeper correction - but for now, it seems like a logical development.
In the past two days, Litecoin has been feeling more confident than the rest of the market. The reason for this - being listed on the Korean stock exchange Korbit. Thanks to this news, the asset is seeing trade volumes that inevitably lead to a change in price. Indeed, it increased by 11 percent, but disappointment with Bitcoin's lack of growth seeped into the Litecoin investor camp as well - the result, a correction to the 0.382 value of the Fibonacci grid.
On the chart, we see a formed ascending channel, similar to the channels of other assets. At the time of writing, its lower boundary is at $130 - we will take this value as the minimum that is acceptable for a safe continuation of growth. Bitcoin’s approach to $7,500 may well force Litecoin price lower, but then the channel will be broken and it will be necessary to start all over again.
We suspect that the surge in volumes and the sharp increase in the price of Litecoin will not last long, and everything will return to normal after the excitement of the asset’s exchange listing passes.
The perspective target is still $150, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci expansion, but first there needs to be some trading in the range of $135 - $143.
What the Litecoin investors still have to do, Monero fans are doing right now: the first thing that catches the eye on the chart is the lateral trade in the range of $190 - $205. Because of it, the price has formed a beautiful bullish flag, which is practically resting against the boundary of a long-term descending channel. Of all the possible scenarios of preparing for the break through a strong resistance, this is the most effective one.
Given the bulls’ success, $220 will become the target with a triple confirmation (dimensions of the figure, the mirror level, the Fibonacci grid).
Confident readers can try to trade from the break in the boundary of the channel, with a stop-loss order in case of a false break. As for the correction scenarios, the level of $190 is stll looking like a reliable support for buyers.
Ripple is showing us another bullish figure. It’s an isosceles pendant, and the target of its full activation - $0.88. The maximum activation time for this formation is by the middle of the day on April 20, but we believe that the break will happen sooner. If only half of the figure’s height is realized, which happens quite often, a more modest target is $0.75.
Unfortunately for holders of long positions, the price can pierce the figure downwards - a lot depends on the state of Bitcoin during the decisive moment for Ripple. In this case, a fall back to $0.60 is possible, so short-term investors should consider stop-loss orders on the lower facet of the triangle.