As we have seen several times now, uncertainty is the market’s favorite state in the middle of the week. The prices of the main asset and the top altcoins are once again stuck at a crossroads, giving no signals for further growth or decline. Market players are beginning to get used to low volatility and are losing their vigilance, for which they are likely to be punished at the most unexpected moment.
Altcoins draining funds away from the main asset
The total capitalization of all assets has not changed: it is $265 bln, which is only $5 bln more than the previous day. For the cryptocurrency market, such a small fluctuation can practically be attributed to statistical error. Bitcoin dominance, on the other hand, deserves notice, coming down to 43.7 percent by Wednesday. This indicator has been falling for three days running, which points to the flow of capital away from the main asset. The logic of investors is simple here - it’s called “entertain yourself.” When the market is calm, attention can be shifted to the search for promising altcoins.
For almost two weeks, Bitcoin has been in a lateral movement within the narrow range of $6,400-$7,500. Several relatively strong bursts of activity among sellers and buyers brought trading volume and fortified this level. On the left trading profile, we see that the fair price for the period since Jan. 15 is still at $8,250, but the current range has already risen to second place in terms of the number of transactions and is likely to become a new basis for further movement.
Bitcoin’s daily price change was just around $200- ranging from $6,650-$6,900, so our prediction from yesterday was correct. Buyers hesitated on getting out of the trap and were able to overcome the resistance only by the second half of the day, having no strength left to increase their success.
We are not expecting much activity from the opposing parties today, either. It’s probable that in the course of the day the ascending channels will be tested- at least the green one, but if the decline touches on the yellow also, we may see Bitcoin at $6,500 again. Today's local maximum is unlikely to be more than $7,000, which coincides with the value of the 0.5 Fibonacci expansion, or $7,150, where buyers will be greeted by the 0.618 value of the same grid.
If nothing extraordinary happens, the uncertainty should be resolved by April 14-15. At that time, Bitcoin might fall out of the long-term descending channel which is likely to trigger purchases. Until then, the chances remain of seeing Bitcoin at $6,000.
For the second day in a row, Ethereum is doing better than the market and pleasing connoisseurs of technical analysis with beautiful figures. Today, it’s a "cup with a handle," which often forms as a result of an unsuccessful activation of the "saucer." In order to bring the figure into action, buyers need to break through the "neck" line at $435. This does not look like an impossible task, but it requires favorable conditions - at the very least, Bitcoin must hold above the levels of its supports.
In case of the figure’s activation, the target of the bulls is $475 and the boundary of the descending channel. However, this is a fairly optimistic scenario. More probable is a continued lateral trade at the level of the 0.236 Fibonacci expansion and a rebound down from the “neck” line. The most important thing in the current uncertain situation is that Ethereum has a safe margin of decline to the level of the local minimum of $360, which means investors will be able to wait out Bitcoin’s drop if it’s not too steep.
We noticed that recently NEO and Ethereum, being assets of the same type, are moving together. Today, once again, NEO is showing results that are similar to its big brother. The initial purchase volume, which we saw on Monday, continues to influence the price- the interest of buyers has subsided somewhat but remains consistently high compared to last week.
The immediate goal for the bulls is $58- it coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci extension and the mirror level. To achieve it, the boundary of the parallel descending channel, which stopped growth the last time, will have to be overcome. If this is accomplished, then even a double top at the level of the previous local maximum is unlikely to help the bears hold back the onslaught.
Just like Ethereum, NEO is gathering a reserve of resilience in case the heavyweight Bitcoin gives the market a cold shower again. The level of $44-$45 is a relatively reliable support for the asset, and the price is moving away from it more and more.