The current price trend of the bitcoin price (BTC) is closely following that of the U.S. stock market during the Great Depression from August 1929 to March 1933.
In trading, a fractal is a term used to describe a candlestick pattern that shows a trend reversal in the market.
According to one cryptocurrency trader, the trend in the U.S. stock market in 1930 is highly similar to the price trend of bitcoin in recent weeks.
Why the bitcoin price trend is indicating a larger pullback
Amidst a rapidly expanding global pandemic, high-risk assets have started to dwindle in terms of momentum and volume.
Investors are frantically moving out of single stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even gold to secure cash as uncertainty towards the potential length of the pandemic.
At a technical level, the bitcoin price climbed to as high as $6,950 and immediately rejected the resistance area. The rejection led to a noticeable increase in sell orders in the $6,800 to $7,200 range, building selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market.
If the bitcoin price follows the fractal of the U.S. stock market in mid-1930, some cryptocurrency traders foresee sub-$3,000 being in play for BTC.
A target of $2,500 to $3,200 goes in line with the analysis of PentarhUdi, a renowned bitcoin trader who has projected multiple full market cycles throughout the past several years.
Considering $2,400 as the new bottom for bitcoin, PentarhUdi wrote:
“I got a bearish target between $1800 and $2500. In this case weekly 200 SMA will be broken and become resistance. Many time and affords will require to break it up and make it support.”
The trader further emphasized that it is the fear in the global financial market that is amplifying the decline in appetite for high-risk assets.
“Amid global financial panic Bitcoin price aggressively attacks Weekly SMA200 and bottom triangle line of previous chart. I see this might not end as well as i thought. As the bearish potential of global markets is huge,” PentarhUdi added.
Volume is rapidly declining
Up until last week, it was the major futures exchanges in the likes of BitMEX that saw a substantial decline in volume.
Following the initial drop in the bitcoin price to $3,600, BitMEX began to see high net outflows as traders started to withdraw funds.
Throughout the past five days, the spot exchange market has also begun to see a clear drop in volume, suggesting that there are not enough buyers in the market to prevent a retest of previous lows.
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