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According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin's volatility is now at historical lows, resembling that of a "stablecoin." Bitcoin's price is now at a decisive junction, in which it could go up or down.
As volatility of #Bitcoin compresses to historical lows, we present both the 🐂 and 🐻 case for $BTC.
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 24, 2022
We assess:
- Potential $1.5B miner deleveraging
- Weak on-chain activity
- Persistent draining of exchanges
- Unwavering HODLer conviction
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At the time of publication, BTC was changing hands at $19,327, marginally up in the last 24 hours. While periods of extremely low volatility for Bitcoin are very rare, there have been instances in the past in which prices have violently broken either higher or lower. Glassnode presents the bull and bear argument for Bitcoin, particularly from an on-chain angle.
The case for bears
According to Glassnode, "new addresses" momentum is poised to make yet another move higher, but it has not yet demonstrated a strong 2019 surge.
In a similar vein to November 2018, the growth rate of addresses with a nonzero balance has likewise plateaued since August. This shows that even while there are over 400,000 new addresses added each day, an equal number are also having their entire balances drained.
Hashrate and difficulty have recently reached new all-time highs. This drives up the cost of producing BTC. Miner hash revenue and mining hash prices have hit all-time lows, indicating miner stress. Overall, on-chain activity and network engagement indicate that the Bitcoin demand side remains lackluster.
The case for bulls
The current bullish argument for Bitcoin is based on the HODLer cohort, or long-term investors' unshakeable conviction and consistent balance growth. The relative buying power of stablecoins is rising, BTC is still leaving exchanges and even the most ardent supporters of Bitcoin have not yet been shaken by the current high volatility and severe downside.
Reserves held by exchanges had fallen to multi-year lows throughout October and have since rebounded to levels from January 2018. In essence, all coin volume that entered exchanges since the peak of the last cycle has now been withdrawn into a nonexchange-related wallet.
Arman Shirinyan
Alex Dovbnya
